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Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: West regionPCMAX

2019年11月27日 category : 未分類 

Top seed outlook: Gonzaga is the best team in the West by a considerable margin, but the Zags, despite reaching the final two years ago, have performed well beneath the glowing lights of the tournament. Still, Gonzaga has a 70 percent probability of reaching the Elite Eight, based on our model, as well as the third-best chances of any group to accomplish the national championship match (26 percent).
Should Gonzaga face Syracuse in the next round, the Orange’s zone defense will give the Bulldogs trouble. This is the best offense Mark Few has experienced Spokane, but it could possibly be analyzed by some of the terrific defenses from the West: Four of the top 15 can be found within this area, including the top two at Texas Tech and Michigan.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Florida State. A fixture at the KenPom Top 20 for the majority of the season, the Seminoles are hoping to build on last year’s championship run, which saw them come within a 4-point margin of making the Final Four. FSU has a dominant defense (No. 9 in Pomeroy’s ratings) plus a balanced roster that saw four players collect at least 2.5 win shares. This draw is not terrible, either: Vermont isn’t especially tough as a first-round foe, and Marquette is quite beatable (more on that below). No. 1 seeded Gonzaga probably looms then, and also we give FSU a 24 percent chance from the Zags — but the Seminoles could have a 48 percent probability of creating the Final Four when they had been to pull off the upset.
Don’t bet : No. 5 Marquette. Teams seeded fifth are not generally good bets to make it past the Sweet 16 anyway, but Marquette could be a particularly bad pick. As stated by the FiveThirtyEight energy ratings, the Golden Eagles are by far the worst No. 5 seed in the area, and also a first-round date using breakout mid-major superstar Ja Morant did not do them any favors. Marquette has some star power of its own in junior guard Markus Howard, who ranks sixth in the nation with an average of 25 points per game, but this team dropped five of its last six games and has a tough tournament road before it.
Cinderella watch: No. 10 Florida. They are poised to do some damage today that they are here, although the Gators might have been one of the last bubble teams to creep into the area of 68. They drew Nevada, a so-so No. 7 seed, at the first round, and we provide Florida a 42 percent chance of pulling the upset there. Last year’s national runner-up, Michigan, probably waits in Round two, and that’s a tough matchup (23 percent odds for Florida) — but when the Gators win, they have a 38 percent chance of making the Elite Eight. Than the, Florida appears better in a region with quite a few possibilities that are good-but-flawed.
Player to watch: Gonzaga, Brandon Clarke The linchpin of the Zags isn’t the consensus lottery pick, nor the two veteran guards who have collectively started 87 percent of the games of Gonzaga over the previous two seasons. It is a transfer from San Jose State who’s in his first season with the group, Brandon Clarke. He’s possibly the most underappreciated player in the nation.
On a group that features a it is Clarke, at 6-foot-8, who’s tasked with protecting the paint this season. Clarke has reacted by setting a single-season blocks record and submitting the maximum block speed of any group under Few.
“If I feel as when I can get a good, fast jump , I will pretty much leap with anyone,” Clarke told me. “I mean, I’ve seen Zion (Williamson) coming down through the street before TV, and if I can not jump at the ideal time, I likely would not jump with him, but… I don’t really see myself not leaping with anybody.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Syracuse (48 percent); No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada (42 percent); No. 12 Murray State over No. 5 Marquette (32 percent)

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