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Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: Midwest regionPCMAX

2019年09月10日 category : 未分類 

Top seed prognosis: On paper, the Midwest appears to be the most open of those four areas, but we still give No. 1 North Carolina the greatest chances, with a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and an 18 percent probability of appearing in the championship match. Those odds are at least 8 percentage points lower compared to any other No. 1 team in the field, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s offense depends on turning every play right into a fast break. The Tar Heels fight to get to the free-throw lineup and give up a slew of shots along the perimeter, and that, in a slowed-down, half-court matchup, could be quite problematic.
After getting waxed by Duke to open the season, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent weeks while finding balance on the two ends of the ground and mostly abstaining in the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is currently in the midst of its best season because Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best along and in the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 5 Auburn. Whenever the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it probably got the attention of a lot of bracket-pickers. That was not a one off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days earlier, part of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their last 11 games. With an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficacy ) that acquired more of its points out of downtown compared to every other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We provide the Tigers nearly a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and a very solid 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina when the Tar Heels are awaiting Auburn there. The only kryptonite may be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which beat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season series.
Don’t bet on: No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went to the season ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate the option by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (plus some key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament possible. This is a well-balanced team, but to state it does not shoot well from the outside is a understatement — see KU’s 3-for-18 performance from deep in Saturday’s Big 12 ouster from Iowa State. Add a negative draw that sets them on a potential second-round crash course with Auburn (see above), and also we provide the Jayhawks just an 8% chance of making from the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. In case a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours can be a Cinderella, then you are looking at it in those Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising trend to seed underwhelming power-conference colleges this manner really contrasts with the definition.) OSU went just 18-13 throughout the regular season, was defeated in its second Big Ten tournament game also has almost twice as many losses as wins because New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a possible Cinderella? Despite the seed, this remains a dangerous team, one that ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s corrected defensive evaluations and has celebrity forwards Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So maybe they will provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But mainly this tells you something about the other prospective Cinderellas within this region: Seton Hall obtained an extremely tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of the other low seeds are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team which did all it could to play its way out of the tournament, but includes some mad potential regardless.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson, UNC On a team that doesn’t hoist a lot of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they come. Following an injury-riddled campaign where he made greater than one third of his appearances from beyond the arc, the graduate student is canning 46.5 percent of his attempts, which ranks inside the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity plot this year. He has blossomed into one of the best scorers in the ACC, ranking between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficacy in transitionoff displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has raised his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive evaluation (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a participant who was not seen as a guaranteed professional now jobs to be a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our latest March Madness predictions.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the number of Sweet 16s created by Villanova in recent seasons. Although the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of the past five seasons, that round was the Round of 32 until 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.

Read more: 2017ipl.net

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