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Kentucky Derby 2019 futures odds: Looking for value as race day approachesPCMAX

2019年11月21日 category : 未分類 

Following this past Saturday’s trio of prep races, the Westgate SuperBook at Las Vegas upgraded its 2019 Kentucky Derby futures odds, with Roadster, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, the new 9/2 favorite.
The previous two preps before the Run for the Roses on May 4 — the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland — take place this Saturday, and the consequence of these races could impact everyone’s Derby list.
However, is there any value to be found on Kentucky Derby futures wagers at this time?
The ideal situation for a Kentucky Derby futures bet is to locate a horse, or horses, in their own two-year-old season that have demonstrated extreme ability and the capability to progress. When the first list of Derby futures comes out, there’s usually a few hundred horses around the menu. You’re hoping to snag a horse using triple-digit odds you spotted as a growing monster which can win enough races and keep solid and healthy enough to continue the Derby trail.
Along with the objective of a Kentucky Derby futures bet would be to realize your horse turn it in the gate the first Saturday in May in”live chances” along the lines of 5/1 or so, while you are in possession of a ticket you purchased months before in 250/1.
While that ideal chance has spawned many people , value may still exist around the futures board.
But potential bets can be dicey, and the road to the Kentucky Derby is a rocky path for many young horses. If your horse stops doing well and is removed from the Derby trail, gets injured or just has a cough on race day and can not compete, you don’t receive your money back.
No matter how many three-year olds are provided in Kentucky Derby futures (the Westgate now lists 33), just 20 horses will begin and only one will cover off to win.
And, to not be a entire downer, but there’s also the possible nightmare of wagering on a horse in advance and watching him go off at higher odds on race day.
Such was the case when I made a futures wager about the 2013 Kentucky Derby on a horse named Vyjack. I was happy to receive 17/1 chances a couple months in advance of the race as well as happier when he left it to the gate in May. I wasn’t so happy if he went off at 37/1 at post time, and though the horse did not increase a hoof, my choice to bet early robbed me with a potential payout more than twice in size.
Still, let us see where the value is different, and in which it doesn’t, about the Westgate’s 2019 Kentucky Derby futures oddsboard.
Favorites with no value:
ROADSTER is your 9/2 favored on this pool off his recent winning performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and there is no value , as it might seem he will go off at comparable odds at short time.
In 6/1, IMPROBABLE is the second choice, and the value isn’t here, either. It’s unlikely he’ll win the Derby but quite probable he will be in the assortment of 6/1 or 8/1 on Derby Day.
OMAHA BEACH is my top Derby prospect at this moment in time, and he’s the third option at 7/1 on this listing. But I’m hoping to get at least 4/1 or even 5/1 on race day, and even though there’s a small bit of worth there, I’d wait until race time to wager him.
Worth plays:
GAME WINNER, 8/1, has become the favorite in his past four races and has never gone off at odds greater than 2/1. If you enjoy this runner, then now is the time. His chances will be about double what he will be in post time.
VEKOMA, 16/1, is coming of a sharp win in the Bluegrass Stakes, and his futures odds offer you approximately double the value you are going to receive on Derby day.
HAIKAL, at 40/1, will provide you about three times the value today than this horse will be at post time.
Finest value:
CODE OF HONOR in 25/1. If you enjoy this competent horse, then 25/1 ought to have you jumping up and down. He should be single digits around post time, and he’s definitely worth a bet at this long early cost.
Longshots with a chance:
SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: 100/1
SIGNALMAN: 100/1
2019 Kentucky Derby futures odds As of Tuesday, April 9 in Westgate SuperBook
ROADSTER 9/2
IMPROBABLE 6/1
OMAHA BEACH 7/1
GAME WINNER 8/1
MAXIMUM SECURITY 8/1
TACITUS 10/1
LONG RANGE TODDY 12/1
VEKOMA 16/1
CODE OF HONOR 25/1
WIN WIN WIN 25/1
WAR OF WILL 30/1
BOURBON WAR 30/1
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE 30/1
SPINOFF 30/1
CUTTING HUMOR 30/1
GALILEAN 40/1
HAIKAL 40/1
BY MY STANDARDS 40/1
PLUS QUE PARFAIT 40/1
INSTAGRAND 50/1
MUCHO GUSTO 50/1
TAX 50/1
COUNTRY HOUSE 60/1
GRAY MAGICIAN 60/1
BODEEXPRESS 60/1
SIGNALMAN 100/1
SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN 100/1
SUENO 100/1
SIR WINSTON 100/1
MASTER FENCER 100/1
FROSTED ICE 100/1
GRAY ATTEMPT 200/1
KNICKS GO 300/1

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